(12) Figures A2 and A3 in the appendix provide additional cross-country comparisons of the mean and median lengths and magnitudes of up- and downswings in each country's terms of trade.
(15) Note that the reason why downswings look small compared to upswings in the chart partly reflects base effects.
On this measure, there have been nine complete cycles (upswing plus downswing) in the terms of trade over that period, some of which were quite brief.
The estimates of Okun coefficients are negative for all countries in the upswing and downswing regimes and these results are in line with a priori expectations.
The estimated Okun coefficients are statistically different in the upswing and downswing regimes for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia and Russia.
Note that Okun coefficients indicate a different type of asymmetry in Hungary, Latvia and Poland: job losses in downswing regimes are lower than job gains in upswing regimes in these countries.
The smoothed regime probabilities for the downswing regime are illustrated in Figures 2-10.
Focusing on industry level patterns, we allow for the possibility of either effect to emerge; however, we expect that, across sectors, upswings will be characterized by a greater role for new products in sustaining growth, and during downswings new processes will play a dominant role leading to the restructuring of production and job losses.
Conversely, during downswings, the performance of high technology industries worsens dramatically.
In order to explore the relevance of cycles in the relationships between innovative strategies and employment dynamics, we have first tested the model on all our cases, both the upswings and downswings, with results reported in Table 3.
The previous results are all confirmed; the average firm size of industries emerges as a positive and significant factor in job creation during upswings and is not significant during downswings, showing that major job losses are found both in traditional industries dominated by small businesses and in industries characterized by larger firms.
While the world economy as a whole underwent long wave downswing, many parts of Asia reversed their trend and underwent long wave upswing.
Did it follow the advanced capitalist economies through upswing and downswing, or did its pattern deviate?
These patterns of long wave upswing and downswing are not deterministic, but they do, nevertheless, seem to be fairly durable through historical time.
Long wave downswing, on the other hand, is where the pattern of per capita growth is low, at or below 2.0 percent over longish periods; there are varying intensities of downswing from positive to negative growth.