My collaborators and I take a fresh look at the international business cycle
using recent insights from macroeconomics and newly available datasets.
In the present context, dramatic predictions should mostly be seen as a desperate grab for investor immortality, more often than not based on misunderstandings about the nature of the business cycle
, the role of valuations in returns or poorly contextualised geopolitical threat assessments.
In the previous case, we review the change in M&A pricing due to changes in the business cycle
This difference appears to be independent of the business cycle
The title of chapter 4 in volume 1, "In Defense of Austrian Business Cycle
Theory," truthfully captures the book's project.
It describes business cycle
data and basic facts, as well as the behavior of the components of gross domestic product over the business cycle
and how economists separate the cyclical components of data from trend, and other key macroeconomic time series variables.
Clearly, the source of consumption inequality depends heavily on the risk premium level and the variation in the market price of risk; both are linked tightly to business cycle
While it does not predict or make any projections about the future business cycle
or any particular investment, the Fidelity Sector Investigator helps advisors:
During these periods changes in the detailed characteristics of business cycles
of particular countries have occurred, but have not affected the general characteristics of the business cycle
For the mainstream, smoothing the business cycle
is job one.
At business cycle
troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months.
The evolving approach to peer group construction must take into account three primary considerations: business cycle
, business model and company size.
The papers discuss the degree to which the region's business cycles
are decoupled from the rest of the world, the factors that affect regional business cycles
, financial market linkage in the region, the impact of free trade agreements on the structure of demand, the impact of inflation targeting on business cycle
synchronization between East Asia and the rest of the world, the relationship between globalization and regional economic growth, the importance of South-South trade as an alternative source of economic growth, determinants of household saving in China, financing infrastructure construction in China, and whether Chinese currency is appreciating fast enough to match the pace of changes in underlying economic fundamentals.
Each asset has unique cash low and risk characteristics during different phases of the business cycle
What are the macroeconomic effects of capital flows, in particular on business cycle