The Indian rupee looks set to embark on a steady appreciatory
run over the medium term.
However, while BMI maintains that it sees the zloty on an appreciatory
trajectory versus the euro over the medium-to-long term, BMI now forecasts less appreciation than previously in 2011 and 2012.
4% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, though it cautions that appreciatory
pressures on the shekel pose downside risks to growth forecasts.
The report believes that on balance the fundamentals for the Russian rouble remain appreciatory
and the research looks for the unit to reach or get near to RUB32.
While we had become increasingly bearish on the unit heading into the year due to unexplained and somewhat erratic policy decisions from the central bank, the explosion in violent demonstrations which eventually led to the resignation of former president Hosni Mubarak has cemented our view that appreciatory
pressures on the currency will be minimal this year.
During the summer tourism season, we also expect appreciatory
pressures on the Croatian kuna to pick up.
Additionally, although the seasonal dynamics that framed the Croatian kuna in previous years will remain a dominant feature over the forecast period, the author believes that much of the medium-term appreciatory
pressure on the kuna has been alleviated.
Following sharp weakness of the Hungarian front at the beginning of 2009, the currency has been in an appreciatory
trend against the euro since March 2009.