The numbers shown are the fraction of outcomes in which we were able to reject the null hypothesis of no forecastable
variation in the loss ratio (or change in the loss ratio) at the 5 percent significance level.
Ultimately, whether and to what extent the model implies forecastable
or unforecastable fluctuations in inflation and GDP growth can be learned by simulating data from the model calibrated under different monetary policy rules and performing forecast exercises on the simulated data.
In these equations, f and g capture the effects of the lagged spread on forecastable
variations in the short and long rates; K is the mean value of the spread.
It appears that, from an historical perspective, the postwar period has been relatively more forecastable
Simultaneously, it is well known that short-horizon asset return volatility fluctuates and is highly forecastable
, a phenomenon that is very much at the center of modern risk management paradigms.
These authors show that forecastable
income growth is statistically significant in regressions for the change in consumption spending,(4) with an estimated coefficient around 0.
i^ is the forecastable
component for firm i; and ||Epsilon^.
Dragon helps sales and marketing executives break through the barriers that separate them from maximum revenue generation, using integrated direct marketing strategies tailored to deliver forecastable
opportunities into the sales pipeline.
Farther in the future, there will never be continuing forecastable
changes in the output gap; so the criterion will always require that the projected path of inflation a few years in the future will equal an unchanging long-run target value, here equal to zero.
Alan Blinder observed that the paper shows that the GDP(E) revision, which previously had been thought not to be forecastable
, is in fact forecastable
t] and induces no forecastable
changes in its subsequent growth rates.
Fama and French (1988) argue that, at long horizons, a relevant portion of the variation in stock returns is forecastable
ahead of time from the price/dividend ratio.
It is true that there is greater support for theories that asset prices follow random walks than that output does, so that the latter may be more forecastable
than the former.
Woodford "Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable
Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption," American Economic Review, 86, (March 1996), pp 71-89.
In his regressions, Cochrane found favorable evidence for the PCAPM - constructed investment returns and NYSE stock returns were positively related, could track each other's movements, could forecast real variables equally well, and were equally forecastable
by a common set of factors.