But a challenge to models based on extrapolative
expectations is that they may create too much positive feedback in asset prices, producing excess volatility at odds with the data.
We need to investigate why elements of backward-looking expectations, and of the extrapolative
behaviour that goes with them, seem to persist.
The main result is that the BLS projections do not differ significantly from those obtained from the naive extrapolative
The forecasts for OE volumes and values in this report are not extrapolative
-- based simply on trends -- but dependent on the underlying drivers of supply and demand.
Looking at survey evidence from the past few years, for example, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen shows that expected one-year returns seem to be extrapolative
Darko Suvin famously describes science fiction's "two main species or models, the extrapolative
and the analogical one" (Suvin, 1979:27).
Forecasting is purely extrapolative
and is the domain of weather and climate models, consumer preferences and economics.
Shiller (2000) discusses psychological factors that contribute to the formation of extrapolative
expectations, with special reference to the runup in stock prices during the 1990's.
However, the proponents of the green movement should take little comfort from this analysis since their behaviour is sometimes equally extrapolative
or ideologically biased.
method fits a model to long historical time series of age specific death rates.
Isserman (6) studied the accuracy level of three commonly used extrapolative
methods of projecting populations in subcounty areas.
Since readers wrote infrequently in response to these offerings, however, Korinek is forced to be more extrapolative
than in other parts of her study.
This model of learning styles provides the foundation for a diagnostic and extrapolative
approach, and has supportive valid and reliable instrumentation that provides practical direction to students.
Particularly, it has been observed that in the short run, the prices are more likely to follow an extrapolative
behavior; however, in a longer time horizon, they display a mean-reversion phenomenon.
2) Although we are not aware of any study that examines ValueLine analysts' ability to forecast firm capital spending, previous studies suggest that they do provide unbiased and more accurate forecasts of future earnings of the firm than extrapolative
models (Brown and Rozeff, 1978).