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Declarer carefully took the ace and king of clubs and dropped the doubleton queen with West.
You could plan to ruff two rounds of hearts but this requires either king doubleton or hearts 3:3.
This looked every bit a singleton so if he held a doubleton diamond to an honour there was a route home.
Answer: If North holds K10x of hearts and a doubleton spade there is nothing to be done, he will now make two trump tricks.
There is only one distribution now where you will lose only one spades trick, that is KQ doubleton with West.
This way if South held doubleton queen you will stop him gaining the lead.
This caters for 85 doubleton with South as you can now use the seven to set up the nine.
This caters for a doubleton jack with South and so gives a slight edge.
You can however play South to hold three trumps and a doubleton club.
The percentage increase is if the doubleton queen drops you are home.
With the queen of diamonds with South and the ace with North, as well as king doubleton heart, you will go down on this line if South plays the queen of diamonds at trick three when you lead the two.
The slam requires the nine doubleton heart with West if the opening lead is not a heart and then the queen of trumps to be picked up.
You should therefore play to block the suit, playing South to hold K10, QJ, Q10 or a similar doubleton holding.
It looks as though South has ducked the ace of hearts, playing North to hold a doubleton heart.
2005), an estimate known to be sensitive to datasets with a large number of singletons and doubletons, using EstimateS (Colwell 2005).
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