might assume that when you know nothing, the rational starting point is 50% (thus, many a Bayesian would make 50% the initial prior probability).
For example, eighteenth-century "moral scientists" studied the behavior of rational individuals and probabilists
coined the term "moral expectation" (utility) to evaluate risk.
Given the scientific fact-finder's claim to formal objectivity, the Bayesian process is ironically totally dependent upon the intuition that probabilists eschew as fuzzy and unreliable, and which statistical evidence ostensibly allows fact-finders to avoid.
What probabilists skip is the linkage between propositions derived from observations of phenomena, and the implications of these propositions allowing us to draw conclusions about legal liability.
, on the contrary, maintained that a moral exigency to follow the most probable opinion did not exist, given that in moral matters such an obligation could not be imposed on man by necessity.
of all stripes will appreciate Lindley's description of the palpable angst experienced by many of the principals as they contended with the realization that the scientific method was abandoning them only to be superseded by a disquieting uncertainty.
283), opposing probabilism of the sort widely endorsed by philosophers who embrace Bayesianism, supportive of the importance of forming testable conjectures, but in opposition to both probabilists
and Popperians in favoring ampliative induction.
And, of course, what economist wouldn't relish this revelation of the great debt owed to this early financial economist by the mathematical physicists and probabilists
to be added to the well-known debt owed to Malthus by the Darwinian biologists?
The Kohonen algorithm has also attracted the attention of probabilists
concerned with establishing rigorous proofs of some of its properties.
legal theories of evidence supplied probabilists
with a model for