Bayes' theorem

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Words related to Bayes' theorem

(statistics) a theorem describing how the conditional probability of a set of possible causes for a given observed event can be computed from knowledge of the probability of each cause and the conditional probability of the outcome of each cause

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4) The estimation is based on a model of Bayesian updating that assumes, for each voter season, there exists a "true" ranking--the ranking based on full information on team qualities, performances, and any other factors considered relevant--and that each voter's weekly goal is to rank teams as closely as possible to this true ranking.
However, as a voter's own final ranks could be flawed, updating toward them maximally "quickly" is just a necessary, and not a sufficient, condition for Bayesian updating.
The Dutch system, in particular, incorporates a complicated bonus-malus class structure that can be viewed as a proxy for a Bayesian updating mechanism.
We choose classical Bayesian updating because (1) the resulting q(k) is the vector of conditional probabilities for the buyer type given the reporting strategy [?
When equal weighting was applied to the inputs from the different captains without Bayesian updating and without the uncertainty factor, the [q.
When Bayesian updating was applied without the uncertainty factor, most of the weight shifted from three modes for [q.
In order to motivate our experiment, we discuss a model based on Farmer and Terrell (1996) and Lewis and Terrell (2001), who examine a statistical discrimination framework with Bayesian updating of employers' beliefs.
Subjects include non-normal distributions that describe the Bayesian updating of atmospheric models, efficient uniform designs for mixture experiments in three and four components, designs of accelerated life tests for periodic inspection with Burr Type III distributions, parameter estimation using Cressie-Read divergence measures with exponential grouped censored data, estimation of variance components of acceleration degradation models, production of the ration of the symmetric differences of order statistics, surface roughness measurements acquired by spatial statistics, Diallel crosses, and the characterization of distributions by conditional expectations of functions of generalized order statistics.
Although the majority of choices correspond to Bayesian updating, the incidence of optimal decisions is higher in sessions with an insurance option.
In NT, primacy is observed in the updating of subjects (c [less than] 0), whereas in the other conditions no systematic deviations from (true) Bayesian updating are observed.